COMMENT

"In the words of German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt:

“Never underestimate the stupidity of government”

Getting ready for Express Entry: Part 1

We are being advised that below are the targets for Ottawa 2015 Express entry program

• In 2015, Ottawa wants 70% of its landed immigrants under the economic classes 
  
  
  
  
  Here is the projected breakdown: 
  
  
  51,000 Skilled Workers, including trades
  23,000  CEC
  48,000  PNP
  30,000  LCP
  32,500  QUE
  48,000  FC1 et. al.
  20,000  FC4
  4,000    HC
  14,500  ref overseas
  11,000  protected persons

Below are Ottawa’s Express Entry policy guidelines.

As always, Ottawa policy guidelines are “reasonable”

Ottawa says that:

• It will keep the existing programs (Federal Skilled Worker... FSW, Canada Experience Class… CEC and Federal Skilled Trades Program (CEC)

• It is committed to assuring that the number of visas approved by the Express Entry program will be in line with the existing targets handed out by the CEC, FSW and FSTP programs

• It is committed to favoring landed immigrants over temporary workers. Thus, LMIA’s for permanent residency applications will be cheaper and easier than LMIAs for temporary workers

• It is committed to processing files in 6 months

• The new program is responsive to “economic and labour needs”

• Potential immigrants will be processed on the basis of their potential in becoming successfully economically established in Canada

Getting ready for Express Entry: Part 2

The Ontario trades sector and Express Entry.

          The cynical consensus

Most GTHA observers, excluding me, assume that Express Entry will change nothing for the GTHA trades... they assume that life will go on as it has since 1972. This means that:

• We in Ontario get the illegal’s while the rest of Canada gets the legals
• Ottawa will do some pro forma enforcement before the 2015 election in order to pretend  that the system has some vestiges of integrity
• Government will give up the illegal worker tax revenue in return for fewer GTHA voters, fewer OHIP patients and fewer pension claimants 
• Employers and unions will not even feel a bump in the road

I disagree with the “business as usual” crowd.

As I see things, Express Entry will be a 10 year game changer in the GTHA trades.

Why?

Because, I’m taking Ottawa at its word concerning tough language standards, byzantine skills assessments and easier, cheaper LMIA‘s for immigrants.

The combination of absurd language and skills assessment rules together with relaxed LMIA’s for Express Entry applications will assure that:

• The skilled trades immigrant program will bring in more English & French speaking workers from third world counties

• Given boom and bust economies in Western Canada , most of the third world workers will gravitate to the GTHA

• As more legal trades workers come into the GTHA there will be pressure to remove the present core of illegal European workers

• The present “shared cultural “values of the Ontario trades will be disrupted in much the same way as the trucking industry  ...new players will create new realities, some unpleasant

Getting ready for Express Entry: Part 3

Ottawa’s recipe for more GTHA trades disaster with Express Entry

Ottawa has once again decided that bureaucrats, and not employers, will decide which workers will be allowed on our job sites, kitchens and mechanics shops.

            Ottawa’s exact quotes are:

“ Express Entry will allow Citizenship and Immigration Canada to select who are most likely to succeed economically in Canada, rather than passively process all applicants in a queue.

Express Entry candidates who are invited to apply for permanent residence can expect faster processing times of six months or less”.

I can just imagine some of the “invitation” questions that the bureaucrats have cooked up.

I’ll bet the farm that no trades worker will be “invited” by the bureaucrats unless:

a) They’ve passed the language exam

b) They have certificates of skills education and work from their home country

c) They have never worked illegally in Canada

In theory, all of the above questions are reasonable.

Ottawa bureaucrats are always “reasonable” when establishing principles.

The problem is that what passes as “reasonable” in Ottawa is simple nonsense in the real world of the GTHA trades.   

Somewhere between the policy principles and the bureaucracy’s execution of those policies, Canada Immigration consistently manages to bugger things up.

For example, experience shows that during the past 20 years:

• Only 48 % of applicants selected by the bureaucrats  have actually stayed in Canada (Source: Asia Pacific Foundation)
•  Many of the others selected by the bureaucrats have driven this nation’s welfare rolls through the roof. The Fraser Institute  pegs the annual welfare bill in the $24 billion range
• Most investors selected by the bureaucrats were not investors
• Most entrepreneurs  selected by the bureaucrats were not entrepreneurs
• Many spouses selected by the bureaucrats were not spouses
• Many refugees selected by the bureaucrats were not refugees
• Thousands of citizens approved by the bureaucrats  were not citizens
• 500,000 GTHA skilled trades workers either refused or ignored  by bureaucrats have in turn ignored the bureaucrats and work illegally

After spending years and millions of dollars setting up immigration programs, the bureaucrats eventually close down corrupt, failed boondoggle after corrupt, failed boondoggle.

The GTHA trades have survived by ignoring government.

The problem this time is that Ottawa is probably serious about imposing its lunacy on the GTHA trades.

 

The impact of the above three little, “reasonable” bureaucratic, EXPRESS ENTRY “invitation” questions will be devastating to the Ontario economy

Here’s what will happen in the Ontario trades:

1. Employers will lose 95% of trades workers from southern and eastern Europe, including those already successfully established in Ontario. These are the existing workers who have been certified by the Ontario government as being “safe” on the job site even though they cannot pass the language exam.

Express Entry will assuredly invite a significantly disproportionate group from England Ireland, France, the Commonwealth and Francophonie.

GTHA employers will give up proven workers from Europe and in return will get untested, largely third world workers who speak fluent French or English but have no clue about a Toronto construction site. Wonderful.

2. Employers will not be able to retain workers from jurisdictions such as Portugal which produce good workers but bad trade certification.

Employers will be asked to hire workers from corrupt third world jurisdictions who may or may not generate good trades workers but can be relied on to crank out corrupt trade certification.

Employers will be asked to hire works from Ireland, France and England who may have great certificates but zero ability to compete on Toronto construction sites, other than on gold bricking public infrastructure locations such as the TTC. The subways will never be built.   

3. Ottawa’s feigned obsession with “illegal workers’ is laughable. Illegal workers pose a greater threat for Ottawa than alleged terrorists.  Ottawa will not process or even acknowledge “illegal “work. Ottawa will make a deal with a terrorist. Ottawa deports workers. Do we laugh or do we cry?

Ottawa will sacrifice Ontario employers on the grounds that the “integrity of the system” demands that we enforce against those who have worked illegally. Meanwhile Ottawa will not consider that its own fraudulent LMI and cynical acceptance of illegal works created this mess. 

4. I believe Ottawa when it says that it will get better Labour Market Information (LMI) for the GTHA trades. The  new LMI combined with draconian language requirements will assure the third world takeover of the GTHA trades   

Conclusions

Employers and unions of 500,000 illegal workers in the GTHA are so intimidated by Ottawa that they will pull the covers over their heads and wonder why they can’t legalize their workers in a booming economy

Express Entry will be the final frontier in denying Ontario employers and unions the ability to retain their trades staff, all 500,000 of them  

Ten years from now, Ottawa will add the skilled trades’ program to its list of aborted policy failures.

By that time, the GTHA will be the Detroit of Canada."

Richard Boraks, November 12,2014